El Nino is making its comeback – and has made itself at home. National forecasters said Thursday that the climate pattern system, known for bringing record rainfall in South America, more winter storms in the US West and South, and drought in South Asia, Indonesia and Australia, is expected to officially return sometime soon. There is a strong possibility that it will last for the rest of the month and year.
El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs naturally every two to seven years when sea surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
And according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, it will likely come to fruition again this year, between May and July. This year’s event could be “potentially significant”, forecasters said, due to “westerly wind events” expected in mid to late May, as well as “above average” heat in the ocean.
According to @NWSCPC’s latest ENSO Outlook, El Niño Watch remains El Niño is likely to develop over the next few months and then persist into the winter (>90% chance).
More on this + burning oceans on our ENSO blog. https://t.co/0RRmVKHQJr pic.twitter.com/CeHYn0ZRsE
— NOAA Climate.gov (@NOAAClimate) May 11, 2023
There is an 80% chance that the event will be at least moderate and about 55% that this year’s El Niño will be “strong,” NOAA said. There is also a 90% chance that El Niño will remain in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the winter.
The update comes just over a month after the agency’s Climate Prediction Center issued one watch As for the event, it said at the time that the system had a 62% chance of developing.
Tropical regions will feel the effects of El Niño the most, but the entire world will feel its effects. If it strengthens, it can shift the Pacific jet stream, which in turn affects US temperatures and precipitation. California, which has seen brutal and deadly floods Atmospheric rivers earlier this year With significant rainfall across the state, this event may lead to more winter storms, as may southern states
In South America, Peru, Chile and Ecuador are also known to experience record rainfall during El Niño years. And on the other side of the world, Australia, Indonesia and South Asia will likely experience severe drought.
But it does not end here.
El Niño’s biggest fuel is warm ocean water, which can fuel hurricanes in the Pacific, NOAA says, driving marine species to other regions in search of cooler waters. Data from NOAA shows that since about mid-March — well before the onset of El Niño — daily sea surface temperatures have already reached record numbers, far exceeding those seen in 2016, around that time. “Godzilla” The Child was released. Monthly average sea surface temperatures also exceeded what was seen around this time in 2016 and 2022, the data show.
According to @NWSCPC’s latest ENSO Outlook, El Niño Watch remains El Niño is likely to develop over the next few months and then persist into the winter (>90% chance).
More on this + burning oceans on our ENSO blog. https://t.co/0RRmVKHQJr pic.twitter.com/CeHYn0ZRsE
— NOAA Climate.gov (@NOAAClimate) May 11, 2023
Ocean heat has only intensified. In January, researchers said the oceans had warmed by an amount equal to the energy of five underwater nuclear bombs.per second for 24 hours All year long.” Ocean temperatures last year, the researchers said, were “the warmest ever recorded by humans,” adding up to 100 times more heat than all the electricity produced globally in 2021.
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